The Red Shamrock: The Road Warrior And Week Seven Picks

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The Red Shamrock: The Road Warrior And Week Seven Picks

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 The Red Shamrock tries to run up his win streak to three weeks in a row

Why hello there. You might have felt a little quake in your boots when the Cardinals crushed the Jets on Monday night. To borrow a phrase, it’s the “Big Mo”, as in momentum as former president coined the term. Yes, I have back-to-back winning weeks this year, which is what we call a winning streak. There were a couple of factors pushing me to the win. My home team picks went 5-1-2 against the spread last week (Lions and Texans winning but pushing when you factor in the points they gave which count as ties or a “push” in gambling terms) while road teams went 4-3 against the spread.

pic_002 This guy’s advice is to always act like a lamb with the “Big MO” and never get cocky about your winning streak

This was in the back of my mind when I made this week’s picks. This week, I picked nine road teams and six home teams. Odd, when you generally conclude a home team plays better at home and should normally cover. After doing some digging at Vegas Insider , I have found that road teams are covering just as equally as home teams this year. If you look at the against the spread totals, this is what we have:

  • Teams are covering the spread 50% of the time this year overall (86-86-12)
  • Home teams are covering the spread 50% of time this year (43-43-6)
  • Away teams are covering the spread 50% of the time this year (43-43-6)

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What the fuck? Don’t believe me? Do the math yourself!

No, those aren’t typos. The law of gambling is in full affect here. Putting the spread in play, you basically have a 50/50 shot to win or lose against the spread each week. This year, only a couple of teams have been superstars against the spread (ATS) this year. Constituting anything above .500 as winning ATS, we only have 12 teams we can consider ATS Busters this year. In no particular order (except alphabetically):

  • Atlanta 5 – 1 ATS
  • Buffalo 4 – 2 ATS
  • Dallas 5 – 0 – 1 ATS
  • Denver 4 – 2 ATS
  • Houston 3 – 2 – 1 ATS
  • Los Angles 3 – 2 – 1 ATS
  • Minnesota 5 – 0 ATS
  • New England 5 – 1 ATS
  • New Orleans 3 – 2 ATS
  • Pittsburgh 4 – 2 ATS
  • San Diego 4 – 2 ATS
  • Washington 4 – 2 ATS

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These are the only spreads 99.9% of readers of this site care about

So in my opinion, these should be the teams you are tracking and thinking about playing the rest of the year for fake betting. Odds are you will go greater than 50% betting on them, but of course you also have to factor in how well they do on the road against the spread. So looking at our 12 top ATS Busters, these are the ones that have superiority home and away (we will count .500 at home as acceptable for superiority). So focus on the following teams (possibly):

  • Atlanta 1 -1 ATS Home, 4 – 0 ATS Away
  • Buffalo 2 -1 ATS Home, 2 – 1 ATS Away
  • Dallas 2 – 0 – 1 ATS Home, 3 – 0 ATS Away
  • Denver 2 – 1 ATS Home, 2 – 1 ATS Away
  • Los Angeles 1 – 1 ATS Home, 2 -1 ATS Away
  • Minnesota 3 – 0 ATS Home, 2 – 0 ATS Away
  • New England 3 – 1 ATS Home, 2 – 0 ATS Away
  • San Diego 2 -1 ATS Homes, 2 – 1 ATS Away
  • Washington 2 – 2 ATS Home, 2 – 0 ATS Away

Nine teams you should focus on over the next couple of weeks, eliminating two bad road teams and one bad home team from our original focus of 12. Avoid these teams (maybe):

  • Houston (0 – 2 ATS Away)
  • New Orleans (1 – 2 ATS Home)
  • Pittsburgh (1 – 2 ATS Away)

Of course, sometimes you just have to go with your gut, no matter what the statistics are telling you. Which is what I did with this week’s picks (home teams in CAPS and selection with spread in bold):

Thursday, October 20th 8:25 PM EST:

PACKERS -8 over Bears

Aaron Rodgers on a short week and coming off an embarrassing home loss to Tom Brady v2 (aka Dak Prescott, with Dallas on a bye this week). Something is off with Rodgers this year and while I suspect it might be an undisclosed injury, others might think he may be distracted with his personal life. Either way, his production is down and the hapless Bears in primetime are just what the doctor ordered to quiet the critics for at least another week. The Bears are 0 – 3 on the road this year and 1-5 ATS overall. The Packers improve on their 2 – 2 – 1 ATS with a statement win that continues the ugly boring games that have plagued the NFL this year on Monday and Thursday nights.

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Is it really that hard to separate your work and home life?

Sunday, October 23rd 9:30 AM EST (London):

Giants -3 over RAMS

Eli and crew have 7 – 9 or 8 – 8 written all over them right now. They are going to be the team that does just enough to beat the lower tier teams and rise up but fail at the end to be the upper echelon of the league this year. I know, it’s kind of odd of me to go against the Rams (winning ATS record this year), but I think the Giants have enough offense to pull a cover off in this one. Plus, this counts as a home game for the Rams in London. I hope the UK continues to enjoy our bottom feeder teams sprinkling bad American Football on them. Who will get up to watch this Sunday morning?

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The two best reasons to watch any football game from London

Sunday, October 23rd 1:00 PM EST:

Saints +6.5 over CHIEFS

Red Shamrock, all this bullshit you wrote about ATS and teams to avoid and you are taking the Saints here? Saints are 2 – 0 ATS on the road this year while KC is 1 – 1 ATS at home. The Saints have enough offensive firepower to keep them in this one.

Colts +3 over TITANS

I feel like the Titans are a bit overvalued after drumming a patchwork Miami offensive line and barley dispatching Cleveland at home. Colts games are deceiving as Andrew Luck only turns it on when they are down big, but of their four losses on paper, only one was by two touchdowns (at Denver). I think Indy covers here in garbage time.

Vikings -3 over EAGLES

I think the Viking defense forces Wentz into some bad throws as his fall to rookie status continues and a now suspect Eagles team who struggled to score offensively last week at Washington gives up some defensive scores to a top five defense. Vikings are averaging 24 points per game and giving up 13 points per game and I could see a 28 – 14 final if the Purple Rain can force Wentz into errors.

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The Red Shamrock loves the Viking D and thinks they drop an education on Carson Wentz this Sunday

BENGALS -10 over Browns

Is there a more frustrating team than Cincinnati right now? Returning players from injuries this week and a pathetic Browns’ QB situation make this a grudge fuck game for Andy Dalton and crew after blowing a third quarter lead at New England. Plus, the Browns still don’t have a QB. Bengals roll.

pic_007 Left over equipment from Cleveland QB tryouts

Redskins +1 over Lions

Washington is high after defeating a Philly team that has come back down to Earth and the Lions are 2 -1 at home after beating a game Rams team. I think Detroit has the offensive firepower to stay with the Redskins in the air, but may struggle against the run. I think the Redskins have a good chance to run on Detroit and notch their third road win against an “eh” team.

Raiders +1 over JAGUARS

The Raiders laid an egg hosting Kansas City last week while the Jags notched their first October road win ever for Gus Bradley. Oakland is a team we love on the road ATS (3 – 0) as documented many times in this column this year. Raiders go to 4-0 ATS away against another bad team this week.

DOLPHINS +3 over Bills

Every thing points to a Miami killing by the Bills this week but we have to factor in one thing from last week’s win hosting the Steelers; it was the first week that the projected starting Miami offensive line has started together since week one. With a defense that knocked out “Ben” and a non existent run game brought to life by a potentially once in a lifetime game from Jay Ajayi, the Phins looked like the team everyone has been projected them to be for years now. We have to admit Buffalo has been on a role since firing their offensive coordinator, but I like Miami at home here and I’m clinging to a potential run at the playoffs thanks to this.

Ravens (Pick’Em) over JETS

Things have gotten so bad for the Jets, they are strongly considering putting in former Glass Joe QB Geno Smith over the pick machine Ryan Fitzpatrick. And there was no line when I wrote this? Free money.

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Yep. This guy may be starting against the Ravens on Sunday

Sunday, October 23rd 4:05 PM EST:

Buccaneers -2 over 49ERS

I don’t think everyone believes that 49ers GM Trent Baalke is the only reason for this 1 – 5 team. When are we going to admit that Chip Kelly is to NFL head coaches what Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban were to NFL head coaches? When a team says your recently appointed starting QB is done, what more can you really do to turn around the season?

Chargers +6.5 over FALCONS

This should be fun. Two ATS Busters head-to-head in the ATL. Atlanta should have had the opportunity two upset Seattle if the officials didn’t ignore blatant pass interference on Julio Jones (and costing your writer some awesome fake cash in a Chiefs/Falcons outright parlay fake bet). San Diego is coming off a score fest against a superb Denver defense. Both teams have no defense, but both teams like to sling it. No surprise if the total on this one is projected at O/U 60.

Sunday, October 23rd 4:25 PM EST:

STEELERS + 7.5 over Patriots

No Ben for this game, and shocker, Bill Simmons’ site tells us the Steelers may have a shot on Sunday. The Steelers suck on the road and own Heinz field. The Patriots snuck past Arizona in the opener and beat a bad Cleveland team for their road wins. I think the Steelers make this game ugly and it’s a battle of pass rushes and run games and I like the 7 for Pittsburgh in a 21 – 17 affair.

Sunday, October 23rd 8:30 PM EST:

CARDINALS -2 over Seahawks

This is the first real road test for Seattle (early loss at LA and a win against the Jets). Arizona seems to have turned their season around, but as Carson Palmer goes, so does the Cardinals. If the Arizona defense can stall some Seahawk drives and Palmer limits his early season mistakes, look for Arizona to pull into 1/2 game of the AFC West leaders.

Monday, October 24th 8:30 PM EST:

BRONCOS -7.5 over Texans

Denver loves their home field advantage and has a defense that is looking to remind people that the hiccups against the Falcons and Chargers were only temporarily. Houston can’t put up points on the road (shutout at New England and crushed at Minnesota). I think the home field also helps Trevor Siemian get back on track as well. Plus it’s revenge against Brock Osweiler for spurning them for Houston. Look for the Denver faithful and their head cheerleader to emotionally propel them to a blowout win.

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Pictured: Gary Smith, Denver and Colorado’s number one fan

Last week: 9-4-2

Season record: 39-47-6 (.457)

Pat Himes aka The Red Shamrock is a huge fan of sports, movies, poker, and fake sports betting. He is also cohost of The 80/20 Movie Show podcast with Gary Smith, which you can listen to for guy humor, movie reviews, and additional fake sports betting picks at www.fatherhoodrules.com. You can interact with Pat on Chaostrophic by interacting with him on the threads under his handle, Dalux247.


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2 thoughts on “The Red Shamrock: The Road Warrior And Week Seven Picks

    • Thanks Electriceye!
      Many factors go into determining the spread for any sport event. Which team has the better record? Are the teams or opponents on a win streak? Whats the average margin of victory and defeat? What’s the overall record if there is a history associated with a matchup?

      Oddsmakers hire professionals who have various methods for setting spreads and over/unders. While some may use similar methods, all have their own ways to determine what the number should be. There really is no set way. Here’s a great article on lines and point spreads are made: http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-basics/gambling-rules-advice/12878.html

      BTW, where has Draculya been hiding? I miss him.

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