The Red Shamrock: Trying Not To Get Ahead Of Himself After His First Winning Week And Week Six Picks


Finally! Finally a winning week since we started this journey in week one of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE ™ 2016 season. Look, I know I kind of explained at the beginning of the season how hard it is to have a winning record against the spread. Actually, I don’t think I ever really did. I kind of feel like I might have mentioned it, but didn’t actually dive into it fully, so let’s clarify what picking against the spread actually means. Plus, maybe my lone Chaostrophic fan/hater/troll, Draculya, will cut me a little slack.

lyf3o4a1 Like any good ghoul, Draculya keeps coming and coming to nail The Red Shamrock week after week

This will also help you if you are listening to our Fun With Fake Betting podcasts as well. I’ll also explain the over/under totals. For our example, we will use this Thursday’s night’s game. The Denver Broncos visit the San Diego Chargers. According to the bookmakers at various sites, and the one I pull my spreads from, they believe the Broncos will defeat the Chargers at San Diego by three points or more. So they have made Denver a three-point favorite.

Gary Smith would kill me if I didn’t put some Bronco image here

If you were to bet with the point spread, and you wanted to bet Denver, your bet would be Broncos -3 (Denver giving three points to the Chargers for the whole game). If you want to bet San Diego, your bet would be Chargers +3 (Chargers receiving three points for the whole game). Odds are fixed next to each wager, and you calculate your winnings based on the amount of money wagered factoring in the odds and avoid winning or losing by three points depending on which team you wagered on. For clarification, if you take Denver, the game starts off 3 – 0 in favor of the Chargers (you gave three points) before kickoff, and for our example, you would need a final score of 27 – 23 to avoid losing your bet.

l0y6h7f1 Confused yet?

Now, say you want to wager on the point total for the game. The point total is the combined score for both teams for the game. You can bet over the projected point total or under the projected point total. For Thursday’s Broncos/Chargers game, the over/under (O/U) is set for 45.5. So you need a combined score of 46 or more if you think the total scored by both teams would be over, or a combined score of 45 or less if you want to bet the under for the score.

ituacr91 Fuck your simple betting lessons

So, with the basics covered, which is pretty much what we are using when I make my picks, you have to factor in a ton of intangibles if you are seriously trying make a go at making money and a winning record against the spread. What are the home/away tendencies when you factor in the point spread? What kind of streak are both teams on? How do teams play after a bye week? Who is injured on each team? Are defenses better against the run or pass or both? What are the offensives proficient at? Were there major injuries to both teams and how can that impact what they do in the game? Gathering all of this information is time consuming, but the information is readily available out there on the Interweb.

t4brswo1 Mind Blown

Let’s be honest though, anyone can do the research and potentially luck box their way to a winning record.

Really, at the end of the day, The Red Shamrock is just as good at picks as this guy

So at the end of the day, if you are at 50% or greater on your picks, you are winning and this is what you want to aim for. Now, let’s take into account that I am aiming to be over 50% by the end of the NFL season. Not that easy to do, especially factoring in the point spread. So last week’s 7-6-1 temporarily stopped the bleeding (and the best I’ve done since week one’s 6-8-2). Last week, I was 53% against the spread, so if I can average that over the next couple of weeks, my overall record should improve greatly. On to the week six picks.

Thursday, October 13th 8:25 PM EST:

CHARGERS +3 over Broncos

If you listen to Fun With Fake Betting, you know I like the Chargers as Philip Rivers plays his ass off on a depleted team to keep them in games and they manager to have all of their losses average three points or less this year. It was a stone cold lock last week when Oakland came to town and I think it’s a lock with Denver visiting this week.

4vjlg0b1 Rivers is so intense and shits three point losses for a living this year

Sunday, October 16th 1:00 PM EST:

49ERs +8 over Buffalo

Kapernick gets the start here against an all of a sudden awaken Bills team. The only reason I’m taking the 49ers is the wild card that is Kapernick, but I do secretly hope that he gets worked.

m7rmssp1 The Red Shamrock would love to see Kapernick get worked a little on Sunday

REDSKINS +3 over Eagles

Carson Wentz and the Eagles had their first turnovers this season last week against Detroit. The Redskins subdued Baltimore (who fired their offensive coordinator as a result). Washington is no world-beater on defense, but should be able to hang with Philly when it comes to scoring. When in doubt, take the home team and the points.

Browns +7 over Titans

The Titans destroyed Miami at home last week (and Miami is probably the worst team in football this year). The Browns were down to Charlie Whitehurst after the beating the Patriots left on them, but Josh McCown may be back and Cleveland is more competent with him under center than Cody Kessler.

GIANTS -3 over Ravens

I think the Giants wake up against Baltimore. The Ravens fired Marc Trestman, believing they have the talent to be better at offense. They don’t, and Giants offense should finally wake up against the Baltimore defense that hasn’t had a real test yet except by Oakland.

y4uf0zq1 Eli is killing gambling but should recover this week

SAINTS +3 over Panthers

Nice note from ESPN on how this may be an elimination game for both teams in the NFC South. Home field advantage should keep the Saints in it.

Jaguars +3 over Bears

Word is, Brian Hoyer will remain the Bears starting QB even if Jay Cutler is healthy to return. Bears are 30th in scoring offense and I think the Jags will have a hot fourth quarter again to steal this one in Chicago.

LIONS -3 over Rams

Los Angles has been terrible on offense and need their defense to win. Stafford and company showed some muster against Philly and should be able to pick up the win and cover here.

Steelers -8.5 over Dolphins

Straight from this week’s Fun With Fake Betting. I’ve kind of resigned myself to the fact the Dolphins are looking to see what they actually have to work with next year and what dead weight they should cut from the team. While Tannehill’s mechanics can certainly be pointed to for some of the bad interceptions he has tossed this year, the continued lack of continuity for the starting offensive line is no help to him either.

The Phins released two offensive linemen on Tuesday, and while the lack of depth and an illness of Branden Albert and a shower sprained ankle for Gas Mask (Laremy Tunsil) exposed huge holes in the lines effectiveness, you think Miami would do more than bring back training camp cut Sam Young to shore up the line. Wait, they did address their cornerback woes brought on by Byron Maxwell and Xavien Howard and Tony Lippet by picking up Bene Benwikere. The same Bene Benwikere who gave up 240 + yds to Julio Jones two weeks ago (RAAAAAAAGE).

The Jets could only contain Antonio Brown until the 4th quarter and did nothing to stop “Ben” the whole game. Steelers offensive should have a field day against the Miami defense. That simple.

Bengals +9.5 over Patriots

Cincinnati is not Cleveland, but they are 1-2 on the road and give up 25 points to opponents. New England still has a suspect defense, and I love getting 9.5 points for a road team that has AJ Green. Plus, I really hate this guy:

ra7rhaj1 The Red Shamrock would never high five Tom Brady

Sunday, October 16th 4:05 PM EST:

Chiefs +1 over OAKLAND

Oakland keeps escaping and evil genius Andy Reid is coming off the bye week from a blow out loss at Pittsburgh. Look for the Chiefs to upset Oakland at home.

f0tiiut1 This guy will have KC ready on Sunday and maybe blow it

Sunday, October 16th 4:25 PM EST:

Falcons +6.5 over SEAHAWKS

I know, I know. The Falcons beat rookie Paxton Lynch in his first NFL start. But I am starting to jump onboard the 1-2 punch of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman for Atlanta. While the Denver D kept the Broncos in the game last week, they racked up a combined 286 yds from scrimmage against a defense that hasn’t allowed opposing backs to gain 100 yds in 14 games from scrimmage. Seattle has gotten back on track after a shaky start, and may keep Julio Jones in check, but I think Atlanta finds a way to move around Coleman and Freeman to stay in the game and cover the 6.5.

oh9txhe1Second nut check game for Atlanta this week against the Legion of Boom

PACKERS -4 over Cowboys

I think the Packers stack the line to contain Ezekiel Jackson and will dare Dak Prescott to fly into Lambeau to beat Green Bay at home.

lqrivw91 The Red Shamrock thinks Prescott will have some issues at the not frozen tundra

Sunday, October 16th 8:30 PM EST:

TEXANS – 3 over Colts

Andrew Luck and the Colts were lucky to win at home against Chicago and are still operating with a patchwork offensive line. Houston is undefeated at home and only giving up 18 points per game to opponents. I think the Houston defense presents any Luck fourth quarter magic.

Monday, October 17th 8:30 PM EST:

CARDINALS -7.5 over Jets

I may be over valuing Arizona here after their offense woke up and blew out the 49ers. The Jets are coming off an embarrassing defensive performance against Pittsburgh and I think they get embarrassed in Phoenix again.

rklfnsq1 While Robert Gill of the Cardinals once ran 25mph on the treadmill, the Jets will come off the rails in Arizona on Monday night

Last week: 7-6-1

Season record: 30-43-4 (.427)

Pat Himes aka The Red Shamrock is a huge fan of sports, movies, poker and fake sports betting. He is also cohost of The 80/20 Movie Show podcast with Gary Smith, which you can listen to for guy humor, movie reviews, and additional fake sports betting picks at www.fatherhoodrules.com. You can interact with Pat on Chaostrophic in the post threads under Dalux247.

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